Predicting the future is, I believe, precarious at best. Nevertheless, I do keep abreast with what is happening around me and hope that this positively impacts my decision-making process. The framework I use is SLEPT. Yes, I am aware that tombs are being written about each of these areas. But I do try to evaluate the issues before investing. Even if it's only a back of the envelope analysis.

The thoughts below are just a taste of my thinking and obviously I adjust the above framework to suit the companies that I am examining. That said, I think that it is easy to reach a point where one can suffer from analysis paralysis.

Social

Lots of barriers are falling from class to race. It does seem to be an increasingly global market fuelled by technological change. Higher levels of education and training appear to be creating a huge global middle-class market. Information, misinformation and disinformation are moving very rapidly.

Legal

Unless you are a lawyer, this is very tricky but as we recently saw from changes in the spread betting industry, legislation can hugely impact industries at the mercy of legislators. It can also keep competitors out.

Economics

Currency wars seem to be well underway. It's unclear how Governments will get back to what might be regarded as normal levels of interest rates. Massive global imbalances in trade, as well as national budgets, have become endemic. I think that it raises serious questions as to the correct value of most major currencies. Especially given the level of debt in most major economies.

Politics

New trading relationships appear to be on the horizon. Traditional political structures are no longer working. We may well be in a period of flux and uncertainty. The electorate appears increasingly unpredictable. 

Technology

The impression I get is that change is becoming almost geometric with change facilitating even greater change. It is obviously creating great opportunities but also major problems. I think that keeping a close eye on potential disrupters makes good sense. And technology lies at the heart of almost all businesses. 

Taken together, the above has encouraged me to diversify. I believe that we are in a period of what is sometimes described as "Radical Uncertainty". My investments could be adversely impacted by events that may be completely outside the analytical box. Although I am essentially a long-term investor I still think that we may well be at a major junction. I strongly agree with a comment made by Martin Wolf in a recent FT article in which he suggested that crises tend to accelerate established trends. From an investment perspective that raises serious issues: The demise of oil, the move towards working from home, even global conflict involving China.